The Lindy framing is neat, but survivorship bias is doing some quiet lifting here too — the graveyard of 200-year-old companies that didn’t make this list isn’t in the chart.
Correct, but that’s exactly the point of the lindy effect: the companies mentioned in this list are very likely to stay around for the next few decades going forward.
I like the Lindy affect concept, kind of like Terry Smith’s the winners keep winning approach. I believe Pharmaceuticals used to be in the Lindy class but not today. Pharma revenue streams end with certainty when patents expire so they must make very large uncertain investments in R&D to discover and develop new medicines that can meet the always rising bar for marketplace acceptance. Remember, when a great drug goes off patent, a new drug must be significantly better for it to be approved and reimbursed by Insurance. These structural dynamics make Pharma one of the most challenging businesses to run.
The Lindy framing is neat, but survivorship bias is doing some quiet lifting here too — the graveyard of 200-year-old companies that didn’t make this list isn’t in the chart.
Correct, but that’s exactly the point of the lindy effect: the companies mentioned in this list are very likely to stay around for the next few decades going forward.
I like the Lindy affect concept, kind of like Terry Smith’s the winners keep winning approach. I believe Pharmaceuticals used to be in the Lindy class but not today. Pharma revenue streams end with certainty when patents expire so they must make very large uncertain investments in R&D to discover and develop new medicines that can meet the always rising bar for marketplace acceptance. Remember, when a great drug goes off patent, a new drug must be significantly better for it to be approved and reimbursed by Insurance. These structural dynamics make Pharma one of the most challenging businesses to run.